SportsCycle.com | Premier League | Published: May 18, 2026
The Emirates is ready. The city is buzzing. And for Arsenal Football Club, Monday night’s clash against already-relegated Burnley could be the night 22 years of hurt finally come to an end. As Mikel Arteta’s men prepare for Gameweek 37 of the 2025/26 Premier League season, the question on every Gunner’s lips is simple: is this finally our moment?
The Title Picture: Two Points, Two Games, One Dream
Arsenal hold a two-point lead over Manchester City with two games remaining in the Premier League title race. The Gunners have endured a nerve-shredding run-in, but they arrive at this fixture with momentum firmly behind them. After winning just one of six fixtures between March 22 and April 19, Arsenal have since earned four victories from their last five, keeping clean sheets in each of their last three outings.
Arsenal know that wins in their final two matches — against Burnley and Crystal Palace on the final day — will be enough to secure their first title in 22 years. And with Palace preparing for the Europa Conference League final just days after the season concludes, the schedule could hardly be more favourable for the red half of North London.
The Odds: Arsenal Are Red-Hot Favourites
The bookmakers have made their feelings crystal clear. Arsenal are heavy -1200 favourites on the 90-minute money line, while Burnley are listed as +2200 underdogs. A draw sits at +1100.
For the match itself, Arsenal are massive 1/12 favourites to secure the victory, with Burnley at a near-impossible 22/1 to claim all three points, and the draw priced at 10/1. For the title itself, the Gunners are 1/5 to be crowned champions, while Manchester City trade at 7/2.
Most online sportsbooks now list Arsenal as -500 or -550 favourites to win the Premier League title outright.
The Case FOR Arsenal Winning the Title
The arguments in Arsenal’s favour are overwhelming:
Dominant Home Form: Arsenal boast a remarkable home record this season — 14 wins, two draws, and just two defeats from 18 games at the Emirates Stadium.
Defensive Solidity: Arsenal have won their last three games without conceding a goal and have kept four clean sheets across their last five matches in all competitions.
Burnley’s Woeful Away Record: Burnley sit on an 11-game winless streak and have collected only nine points on the road all season. They have also conceded the most goals in the division — 73.
Historical Dominance: Arsenal have won 39 of their last 44 matches against newly promoted teams, remaining unbeaten throughout that run.
Saka’s Return: Bukayo Saka has returned from injury and his form has inspired Arsenal to crucial victories over Fulham, Atlético Madrid, and West Ham. The winger has scored two goals in his last three appearances and has 11 in all competitions this term.
Gyökeres on Fire: Viktor Gyökeres has scored 21 goals this season, with most coming against struggling sides — exactly the kind of opponent Burnley represent.
Expert Consensus: Former Arsenal and England star Paul Merson has been emphatic: “If Arsenal can’t win the league from here, they will never win it. I believe this will be an easy win for Arsenal. I can’t see Burnley troubling them at all.”
The Case AGAINST Arsenal: Reasons for Caution
No title run-in is without its nerves, and Arsenal fans know better than most that football rarely plays to script.
The West Ham Scare: Arsenal survived a nerve-shredding 1-0 win at West Ham, requiring a crucial late save from David Raya, an 83rd-minute Trossard strike, and a vital VAR intervention disallowing Callum Wilson’s injury-time effort. The margin for error is razor-thin.
Injury Concerns: Ben White has suffered a knee injury that has ended his season, while Arsenal are also expected to be without Jurrien Timber and Mikel Merino. Riccardo Calafiori was being assessed after picking up a knock against West Ham.
Burnley’s Surprise Factor: Despite their struggles, Burnley have kept clean sheets and taken four points from two of their last three trips to Arsenal. Relegated sides with nothing to lose can be unpredictable opponents.
City Still Alive: Manchester City’s win over Crystal Palace has kept pressure on Arsenal. If the Gunners drop points, goal difference could hurt them in the final reckoning.
22-Year Weight of History: Arsenal’s fanbase has been here before — close, yet heartbroken. The psychological weight of ending a title drought that stretches back to 2004 cannot be underestimated.
Team News Snapshot
Arteta has played the same starting XI in the last three Premier League games, but changes are forced. Ben White’s knee injury rules him out for the rest of the campaign, with Cristhian Mosquera likely to step in at right-back. Captain Martin Odegaard could return to the starting line-up after coming off the bench to set up Trossard’s winner at West Ham.
For Burnley, their predicted 4-2-3-1 formation should provide a compact midfield screen, with Zian Flemming as the main outlet up front. The shape looks designed around organisation and quick counter-attacks when possession is won.
Match Prediction
The data, the form, the odds, and the occasion all point firmly in one direction. With Burnley already relegated and Arsenal at home with a points lead, it is difficult to expect anything but three points for Arteta’s Gunners.
If Bournemouth do the Gunners a favour by beating or drawing with Manchester City on Tuesday night, Arsenal’s agonising 22-year wait for another top-flight crown will officially be over.
SportsCycle Prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Burnley
The Emirates will roar. The Gunners will deliver. And by Tuesday night, North London could be lifting its first league trophy since the Invincibles era.
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